Flash NAND Memory Price Set to Crash in 2019, Could See SSD Costs Plummet 75%

Written by Jon Sutton on Thu, Aug 16, 2018 5:37 PM

A market expert has predicted with near-certainty that the price of Flash NAND memory is set to plummet heading into 2019. We’ve heard previously how there is an oversupply of Flash NAND memory, although it appears this oversupply is on a far larger scale than expected.

According to Objective Analysis’ Jim Handy, the market is set for a huge downward pricing correction or, potentially, even a collapse. The current market value of 64-layer 3D NAND is around $0.30 per GB, but Handy believes the price per gigabyte will drop as low as $0.08 in 2019. According to The register, Handy said it will be “the largest-ever price correction in the history of semiconductor products.”

That’s a formidable claim if ever we’ve heard one, and it’s a result of current overpricing combined with increased supplies. We’ve got a lot of NAND memory manufacturers wanting a slice of what is currently a very lucrative pie, but a growth of 45% in supplies of NAND Flash in this year alone, without a similar rise in demand, means prices are going to tumble in dramatic fashion.

Based upon current SSD prices, the reduced worth of 3D NAND memory could see the price of commercially available solid-state storage drop my as much as 75%. Next year, more than ever, SSD’s could finally begin to move nearer to the holy grail of HDD pricing. At this point, SSD sales should begin to eat away at HDD sales in a significant fashion.

Interestingly, Handy believes that this oversupply of 3D NAND could see providers shift their manufacturing over to DRAM, resulting in a similar over-supply of DRAM in the near future. DRAM is also arguably the subject of over-pricing right now, even if it’s nowhere near as bad as it was a year or two ago.

For those looking to save a few pennies then, it looks as if 2019 is going to be an opportune time to pick up that mass storage SSD you’ve always dreamed of. Likewise, it may pay to wait until 2020 for that eventual DDR5 RAM upgrade.

With prices set to plummet, are you planning to splash out on a new SSD next year?

Source: The Register

Our favourite comments:

So the price-fixing lawsuit against Samsung, Hynix and Micron went well? Because those bastards drove up the costs of everything...

xquatrox

My cynical side has a hunch that some 'incident' will mean prices actually sky rocket.

acidbottle

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20:31 Aug-20-2018

YOU GET AN SSD AND YOU GET AN SSD. EVERYBODY GETS AN SSD

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18:02 Aug-17-2018

So the price-fixing lawsuit against Samsung, Hynix and Micron went well? Because those bastards drove up the costs of everything...

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13:26 Aug-17-2018

I'll be ready for some cheap parts.

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11:19 Aug-17-2018

I just want cheap ram.

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20:52 Aug-17-2018

RAM prices will go down too, but not as much, they will go to their previously normal prices

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10:59 Aug-17-2018

I'll believe it when I see it.

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14:45 Aug-17-2018

If I can see it, then I can do it
If I just believe it, there's nothing to it


I believe I can fly
I believe I can touch the sky
I think about it every night and day (Night and day)
Spread my wings and fly away
I believe I can soar
I see me running through that open door
I believe I can fly
I believe I can fly
I believe I can fly hoo

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09:33 Aug-17-2018

Oh boy, one 1tb for sample libraries, one 1tb for video editing.

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07:13 Aug-17-2018

My cynical side has a hunch that some 'incident' will mean prices actually sky rocket.

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06:34 Aug-17-2018

I already have a NVMe for my OS, and a SSD for games, but I could use a bigger SSD for games.

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06:18 Aug-17-2018

I'll be really happy even if it's a 30-40% price drop in where I live. I'll snag that 1TB Samsung right away.

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01:50 Aug-17-2018

My dudes, I can't wait to FINALLY try an SSD! It's been a long time coming, and certainly needed! I think it's safe to say that I'm in for a treat!

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02:30 Aug-17-2018

same :)

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22:44 Aug-16-2018

Cant wait for next year. Finally will be able to put a SSD in my system. cant wait now.

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21:22 Aug-16-2018

75% seems little excessive.

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02:33 Aug-17-2018

Wouldn't surprise me.

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20:17 Aug-16-2018

They would cost at least $70 here even if they were for free elsewhere, the 120GB ones more so.... Sadly.

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20:08 Aug-16-2018
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19:06 Aug-16-2018

75% drop of SSD drive prices is not likely, manufacturers would rather make bigger capacity models to retain steady income growth

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03:25 Aug-17-2018

I wouldn't mind picking up a 2Tb SSD, or two, to go into my system.

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10:02 Aug-17-2018

In effect, this would be the same thing, as the price per GB would still go down. You get more storage for the same money meaning it's cheaper.

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10:19 Aug-17-2018

Yeah lol, as it says in the article this is a 75% price drop in cost per gigabyte. I'd rather get a 2TB SSD for £100 than I would get a 512GB SSD for £100.

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14:51 Aug-17-2018

Right now I've just got the 1TB m.2 SSD with both my operating system and games on it.

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18:23 Aug-16-2018

Good news

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18:46 Aug-16-2018

I second this! Good news indeed!

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18:11 Aug-16-2018

looks like next year will be a good time to upgrade by storage. As it stands a 1TB SSD is still over £150

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17:52 Aug-16-2018

I think there are already Mushkin or were they Crucial SSDs for 70-75$ that are 480GB

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17:49 Aug-16-2018

it's happening already, I bought a couple of them for less than 70$ (2x256GB).

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